Stronger cash generation, a longer offer window — allocation discipline holds

Unaudited nine-month results — stronger operating evidence

Reuters and Nairametrics report the company’s unaudited results released on 13 October for the nine months ended 30 September 2026. These are reported company figures, not an independently audited earnings assessment.

• Revenue: $22.48bn versus $9.19bn in the corresponding 2025 period; EBITDA: $5.52bn versus $627.6m.
• Reported EBITDA margin: 24.56% versus 6.83%; net profit: $4.73bn versus a $117.2m loss.
• Operating cash flow: $3.68bn versus $364.7m; cash balance: $6.69bn versus $809.5m.
• Reported net cash: $650.8m, compared with net debt of $1.73bn a year earlier. Net cash does not establish the absence of gross borrowings or other obligations.

What the improvement supports — and what remains unproven

Operating cash flow is approximately 66.7% of reported EBITDA, calculated from the rounded published figures. That is evidence of cash generation alongside earnings; it is not free cash flow after capital expenditure.

Our assessment is that the results materially strengthen confidence in present-scale commercial operations. Strong product-market conditions may have assisted margins, so current profitability should not be assumed to represent a normal refining cycle.

The underlying detailed financial statements have not been independently inspected for this web edition. Sustaining capital expenditure, normalised EBITDA per barrel, working-capital movements and the scope and maturity of debt obligations require further scrutiny. Do not treat the cash balance as unrestricted expansion funding or mechanically annualise these earnings into a valuation.

Official extension and conditional timetable

The issuer’s formal notice dated 12 October moves the offer close from 13 to 27 October 2026 and states that SEC approval was received. The extension supports market access and completion of onboarding requirements; it does not change intrinsic value by itself.

The notice describes the following milestones as indicative and subject to adjustment. It does not guarantee a trading commencement date.

• Offer close: 27 October 2026; collation of returns: 3 November.
• Basis-of-allotment submission to SEC: 10 November; target SEC no-objection/allotment date: 17 November.
• NGX listing and trading commencement: allotment date plus 15 business days.

Offer economics and subscription claims

The base offer remains 4.10bn primary shares at ₦525: potential gross proceeds of ₦2.1525tn before costs. The previously NGX-reported indicative equity valuation is approximately ₦65.22tn; the base issue is about 3.3% of indicative enlarged equity.

Issuer descriptions of strong demand are not independently verified final subscription or allotment data. The additional window improves opportunity to participate; it does not establish book coverage, allocation certainty or secondary-market liquidity.

Risks carried forward

Edition 06’s proposed petrol-cost ceiling introduced potential working-capital and recovery exposure. This edition does not establish final implementation or quantify its effect on refinery earnings.

The stated $14.3bn expansion programme remains a substantial financing and capital-allocation question. Normalised crude procurement economics, leverage, related-party governance, minority protections, Nigerian currency and sovereign exposure, and effective post-listing free float remain material.

Decision and next evidence

HOLD PLANNED ALLOCATION. Maintain measured starter participation within the existing risk budget and preserve capital for post-listing price discovery. Do not increase the intended allocation on unaudited earnings or promotional subscription claims alone.

The next decision-useful evidence is detailed financial reporting, verified subscription and allotment figures, final pricing-policy and recovery arrangements, expansion funding disclosures and confirmation of the NGX trading date.